I have just returned from Scotland, where I did some doorstep campaigning on behalf of the United Kingdom I love. I left a Scotland in a state of nervous prostration, knowing it had done the right thing, but with a pang of guilt at not taking the emotionally attractive route of becoming an independent nation. For the young novices to politics, a strong feeling of “we wuz robbed”. Following a long night of black despair, Salmond threw in the towel, but in robot-mode he is now carrying on with his fantasy of a land flowing with haggis and honey, being denied them by the deceitful bullying English.
Polling Day itself was a revelation, everyone seemed to have voted, and they were reticent about how they had done so. “Between me and the ballot box” was quoted on successive doorsteps – but the body-language clearly indicated a “No” vote. Around the country, I observed the enthusiasm of the “Yes” campaign, appropriating the Saltire flag, leaving behind the debris of “No” posters torn and defaced. But, enough of their roadside posters survived depicting a kilt-clad bulldog with a union-jack waistcoat declaring “Proud to be Scots, and delighted to be united”.
The whole campaign was a disaster for Scotland, stirring up hatreds, playing on emotions, and ignoring the substance. I was early reassured by a Scottish office worker who was absolutely convinced about the result: “You can say a lot about the Scots, but we are not stupid!” It was also the consequence of yet more policy-making that had not been thought through.
The Referendum was decided at the canter following the SNP achieving the previously believed impossibility of a majority in the Scottish Parliament. “The Scots must be given their referendum” said the self-described master tacticians of British politics. The details were then left to Alex Salmond. They complacently relied on the vast lumpen mass of Labour voters in the Central Belt, where the majority of Scottish voters reside. The campaign could be left to the Scottish Labour Party, provided the Conservatives accepted the proposition that they were detested and that we kept a low profile.
This represented a whole series of errors, based on the last General Election. Whilst Brown’s Labour was devastated in England and Wales, it achieved a 2.5% swing towards them in Scotland, regaining two by-election losses. Brown himself achieved the largest majority in Scotland. The belief was that Labour was the master of Scottish destiny.
What they overlooked was the grassroots significance of the Scottish Parliamentary election itself. Whilst the SNP achieved a majority of seats, they took only 44% of the votes, but far more significant were the constituency results – Labour lost over half their seats. In Glasgow they lost a majority of the divisions, they also lost such iconic Labour bastions as Paisley, Hamilton, Falkirk, Airdrie & Shotts, Linlithgow, Midlothian and Kirkcaldy. It showed the rust in the old jalopy of the Labour machine breaking through – and no one noticed.
Except for George Galloway – I never expected to see the day when that rabble-rousing extreme lefty would gallop from his English constituency to save his political enemies from their own folly in his native Scotland!!
So confident were the master-tacticians, and the complacent Labour overlords, that they decided to take the high risk route of independence or the Union – pure and simple – without an intermediate stage of “devo-max”, however defined, convinced that the stark choice would result in an overwhelming “No”vote.
Meanwhile, the devil was in the detail – and Salmond was left to define that.
He decided to enfranchise the 16 and 17 year olds. Early research showed that the cohort was uninterested in a little Scotland, but was fascinated by the wider world, and would strongly vote no. What was overlooked was that these school students were at that blessed life stage of immaturity, inexperience and susceptibility to idealism – and therefore vulnerable to incitement by SNP-inclined teachers and the electronic media. Their immersion in the internet gave the cybernats their opportunity and they took it. 71% of the cohort ended up voting “Yes”.
Alex Salmond then turned his back on his fellow Scots living and working elsewhere in the United Kingdom. They should have been involved in a fundamental decision to redefine their own nationality – They weren’t. Scots working outside the United Kingdom could register in Scotland for a proxy or postal vote (as they can for all parliamentary elections, with an expiry limit of 15 years on their vote). Those within could not. A temporary department of the Scottish Electoral Commission should have been created, to register such Scots (against production of a birth certificate showing a Scottish birthplace), to despatch postal votes, and finally to count them alongside the local authorities on election night. They would have overwhelmingly voted “No”, so they were excluded by a determined Salmond and a complacent political establishment.
He proposed the question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, thereby claiming the positive for himself – and forever rubbishing the opposition as “being negative about Scotland”. How much better “Should Scotland remain within the United Kingdom?”, or at least “Should Scotland separate from the United Kingdom?”.
The use of the last two words in the question enabled Salmond to claim that his opponents thought Scotland couldn’t become a viable independent country. Of course, it could – a cross between Iceland and Denmark, but vulnerable to currency and security attacks – but on the details he spent his time rubbishing any questions, and impugning his opponents’ motives.
The complacency and miscalculation almost led to disaster, resulting in the national party leaders panicking and throwing every concession at the Scots, labelled “devo-max”, regardless of any evidence that “No” voters were requiring them, and leaving open wounds for the future, which Salmond is already starting to exploit.
The Opportunity to be grasped
However, through the fog of war created by the Referendum, the Conservative & Unionist Party should discern a massive opportunity: The support base of the SNP has shifted – to our advantage.
For years, the SNP base has been in the otherwise Conservative heartlands. Salmond himself sat for Banff & Buchan (his departure from Westminster in 2010 resulted in the largest swing in any seat in Scotland – 10.6%, and to the Conservatives!). Those SNP heartlands this time voted clearly against the SNP’s fundamental policy in the Referendum. In their pursuit of the bulk vote in the Central Belt, the SNP’s language and priorities have become increasingly Socialist and they are alienating their erstwhile supporters, whilst eroding the Labour vote.
Another purloiner of our historic Scottish seats has been the Liberal Democrats. In 2010, their vote declined. In 2011, their vote more than halved, to less than 8%. They lost nine seats, surviving in only two – Orkney and Shetland – none in mainland Scotland.
We should not overlook that at the 2010 General Election, the Scottish Conservatives increased their vote by one per cent to 412,855. That was 17%, only marginally behind the Lib-Dems on 19% and the SNP on 20%. Since then the Lib-Dems have been pulverised, and the SNP has shifted its ground.
The Conservatives came close second in a number of seats. We could gain from the SNP – Angus (4.3% swing required), Perth & North Perthshire (4.5%), Banff & Buchan (6.2%), and Moray (6.8%). From the devastated Lib-Dems we could take Argyll & Bute (3.8%), West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (4.0%), Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (5.8%), Gordon (where Malcolm Bruce is retiring – 8.6%), and even North East Fife (11.2%). In Edinburgh, the Lib-Dem West division, would fall to a 6.3% swing, although Labour is marginally nearer. In the South West division we need a 9.2% swing against Labour, which could be boosted by the collapse of a large Lib-Dem vote; and in the South division a 6.5% swing could unseat Labour, although the Liberal high-water mark took them within a whisker last time.
We currently hold only one seat in Scotland – Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – with a 9% lead over Labour. With a potential of four seats from the SNP, five from Lib-Dems, and three in Edinburgh – even half of them gained would represent a massive gain, and a vast boost to the morale, let alone a significant contribution to a majority Conservative government at Westminster.
The problem lies in the state of the Conservative Associations in Scotland, depleted, demoralised and aged. Ambitious candidates in Scotland, believing in freedom and free-enterprise, have not seen the Conservatives as a practical vehicle for their ambitions for many years. We now need, as an emergency measure, to apply first-class agents, computer equipment, and presentational skills to our Scottish colleague Associations. Now, that would be a wonderful British assistance to Scottish politics! To parody Churchill’s famous plea “Give them the tools, so they can finish the job”!
Jacques Arnold is a former M.P. and Chairman of the Conservative Backbench Committee on Constitutional Affairs
