Tim Focas talks U.S. Politics with Express.co.uk

Monday 25th March 2019

Earlier today, Parliament Street’s Director of Financial Services, Tim Focas gave an exclusive interview to Express.co.uk. The expert political risk analyst was asked his opinion on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election and explained that Bill Clinton’s old maxim still holds true – “It’s the Economy, Stupid!”

The interview can be read online here.


Alternatively the text can be read below:


Trump election polls: The ONE issue that will decide 2020 election – will Trump win?

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump is seeking a second Presidential term in the White House, but could he win the 2020 Presidential Election?

President Donald Trump has had a tumultuous time in the White House so far, beginning his presidency as one of the most unpopular presidents in the modern era. According to the polling site, fivethirtyeight.com Mr Trump’s approval rating sits at just 42.1 percent, lower than 5.8 percent than where Barack Obama stood at this moment during his presidency. The 2020 presidential election is looking to be heavily controversial, with several senior Democrats already putting themselves forward to run against President Donald Trump.

Will Donald Trump win the 2020 Presidential Election?

Current polls point to Joe Biden having the lead among the Democratic presidential hopefuls, despite the former vice president not officially entering the race. 

According to a Fox News poll released on Sunday, March 24 when asked whom they would like to see win from a list of 20 potential candidates, 31 percent of Democratic primary voters chose Mr Biden. 

Senator Bernie Sanders, comes in second with 23 percent, followed by California Senator Kamala Harris (eight percent), former Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke (eight percent), Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (four percent) and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (four percent).

In this poll, two percent or fewer Democratic primary voters chose other candidates, and 11 percent said they did not know who they would vote for. 

In a theoretical head to head with Donald Trump, Mr Biden performed the best of the potential Democratic nominees.

If the election were held today, 47 percent of voters say they would vote for the former vice president, and 40 percent say they would vote for incumbent President Trump. 

But what will the presidential race come down to? According to Tim Focas, director of financial services for Westminster think tank Parliament Street, it will be the economy that will clinch the vote. 

Mr Focas told Express.co.uk: “To coin an infamous saying by Bill Clinton’s election strategist ‘it’s the economy stupid’ that will ultimately determine the success or failure of President Trump’s 2020 election campaign. 

“More specifically, has US economic growth made a material difference to those rust belt voters Mr Trump campaigned so hard to win over in 2016?

“Despite the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts, the U.S economy fell short of 3% annual growth target last year.

“Mr Trump needs to find a way to square the circle between his political rhetoric on US growth, and economic reality. 

“No President wants to be heading into a second term campaign with dark economic clouds hanging over them, including regular bouts of market volatility triggered by a major trade dispute with China.

“And it is not just about China, Mr Trump is hardly going to take kindly to the fact that the EU’s trade surplus expanding with the U.S in January. 

“This could be the foundation for future protectionist measures from the Trump administration and who knows how negative further tariffs could prove to be on the US economy between now and the election.” 

The 2020 Presidential Election is scheduled for November 3 and will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election.

The Fox News poll was conducted from a random sample of 1,002 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

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