In this edition of ‘Views From The Ground’, Parliament Street’s Tom Hunt, outlines his thoughts and findings from a recent campaign day with Stewart Jackson. Stewart Jackson is the Conservative Candidate for Peterborough.
Last Saturday I paid a visit to Peterborough for Stewart Jackson’s campaign launch. I have long been an admirer of Stewart, he is a formidable local campaigner and a sound conservative on many of the big issues of the day.
What is more, Peterborough is a key seat, though not a 40/40 seat, it is certainly a marginal one and a Conservative victory is far from assured. Stewart was first elected in 2005, gaining the seat from Labour, initially with a majority of 2,730. Stewart retained his seat in 2010 and now sits on a majority of just under 5,000 (4,861).
Peterborough parliamentary constituency encompasses the majority of urban Peterborough, however, not all of it. Whilst an MEP candidate last May I ended up campaigning in the part of urban Peterborough that falls under Shailesh Vara’s North West Cambridgeshire constituency. Stewart’s seat also encompasses the villages of Thorney & Eye. These are solidly Conservative villages and are a contributing factor in explaining why Peterborough is a marginal seat, as opposed to a knife edged seat. Electoral calculus estimates that in the May 2010 election 1,263 Eye & Thorney residents backed Stewart as opposed to the 380 who backed Labour.
On a non-political note, Thorney is a stunning village possessing one of the oldest Abbey’s in the country, it is truly stunning and certainly worth a visit.
Generally speaking, Peterborough has not received the same level of attention from Conservative Campaign Headquarters as many other seats –certainly not the primary 40/40 seats– tending to suggest they are of the view that is is pretty secure. Labour however, appear to have other ideas. A month ago it was reported in the Peterborough Telegraph that the hedge fund manager Martin Taylor had donated £600,000 towards the Labour campaign to take the seat.
What is more, though there has not been any Ashcroft polls, a number of others have pointed to this being a close race. Electoral calculus estimates that Stewart will secure 37.8% of the vote relative to Labour’s 34.5% , securing a majority of approx 1,500. The New Statesman May 2015 election website currently predicts that Stewart will win by a majority of 1.17%, however, at times over the past week Peterborough has come in under the Labour column.
It is hard to draw too much from recent local election results, though the Conservative majority at the council has fallen since May 2010 to the point where though there is still a Conservative Leader it is has lost its majority at the Town Hall falling into no overall control, this is not uncommon for a Party who is in Government. Too often mid term local elections and European elections are seen as an opportunity to kick the Government of the day. Moreover, Peterborough unitary authority area does not mirror Stewart’s constituency, it takes in part of the North West Cambs parliamentary constituency.
Knowing Peterborough, and knowing Stewart, I cannot help but feel that his seat is more secure than these numbers suggest. Not only do these polls downplay the inbuilt advantages incumbents have, they also downplay the affection within which Stewart is held by thousands of his constituents, many who whom with another Conservative candidate might be tempted to cast their vote for UKIP. This article by Sky News Deputy Political Editor, Joey Jones, expands on this point further.
Stewart is a solid eurosceptic and and has evidenced clearly over his time as an MP that he is independent minded and not afraid of speaking his own mind and putting his constituents first. The sense I get is that a great many of Stewart’s constituents recognize this and appreciate it. In an era where the electorate are becoming increasingly weary of spin and candidates trotting out the same out Party lines Stewart can certainly claim to be unspun and authentic.
Stewart Jackson is fighting to regain Peterborough
What about Stewart’s Labour opponent, Lisa Forbes PPC? Let’s just say, after conducting some brief online research and having seen a couple of her leaflets whilst campaigning last Saturday, I have not warmed to her. Her website is largely full of meaningless platitudes and irritating comments like ‘Unlike Peterborough’s Tory MP, I live in the real world. I am not a Westminster politician”, what does she even mean by this?
What is also interesting is that there is no “about me” section to her website and there is no indication of what her profession/job is or has been. Yes she seems like quite a nice person (makes a change from the previous candidate Ed Murphy), it is great that she is a mother of four, however, is she of the calibre to be an effective MP? perhaps not. Perhaps the AWS under which the Labour candidate was selected goes someway to explaining the quality of the candidate? It would be inappropriate for me to comment any more, I have not met her and have only looked conducted some brief research, however, what is clear is that she needs to work on her website.
On the whole, the sense I get is that we have many reasons to be confident that Peterborough will remain blue. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Stewart holding the seat. However, it could well be tight, the Labour campaign is well financed and they seem to think they might be able to pull of a surprise in a seat that has at times not attracted the same interest and attention as many other marginal seats.
Stewart is a great MP and is supported by a fantastic welcoming team, to all Conservative activists out there who want to make a difference, Peterborough is certainly worth a visit.
‘Views From The Ground’ aims to bring news and views from those fighting the campaign for a Conservative majority, on the ground.
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